http://eurosport.yahoo.com/08022010/58/tramlines-tennis-tops-role-model-list.html

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2010/02/Tennis-Most-Positive-Sport.aspx

As you can see in the first link above, Roger and Steffi Graff, who happens to be one of my favourite female players as well, was named top role models of sport by a survey of 1500 people run by Barclays. Now I don’t know where they found these people, but I think it’s a pretty good result nonetheless. Tennis was also named the most positive sport, as you can see in the second link. That brings us to the conclusion that Roger could well be the most positive role model in all of sports. And why not? I’ve written about this before in my post  Federer Last Man Standing as Woods Falls from Grace . Tennis seems to be a pretty clean sport, and none is cleaner than Roger himself. I mean the guy is just the ultimate sportsman and role model. Tiger Woods used to be a good role model, but look at how he turned out.

It’s good to know I am a fan of such a positive sport, and more specifically a fan of such a positive role model. That makes this blog pretty special if I may say so myself. Most tennis blogs you find will be about tennis in general, because there is just so much more to write about when you follow tennis in general as opposed to a specific tennis player. Unless of course your blog follows Roger Federer. It’s amazing how much interest there is in this special tennis player and human being, and rightly so. I’m proud to be a Fedfanatic and proud of this blog, and so should you! Neither Roger nor this blog is the same without you!

After the first grand slam of the year is now completed, and now that Roger has once again showed that he is the dominant force in tennis, we can  look at who will be the main challengers to Roger in the coming months. A grand slam normally gives a good indication of who the top players are at the moment. Last year Del Potro made a big statement when he won the US Open, and now Andy Murray has also made a statement by reaching the final of the Australian Open. So lets look then at who is Roger’s main rivals these days:

1) Del Potro

Winning the US Open last year was no fluke from Delpo. Many people think that Roger played a bad match that day, but I am of a different opinion. I don’t think he played a bad match, but I do think there was one or two points on which decided the match, and on those points Roger was not as sharp as he usually is. It was an emotional year for Roger and I just think he was a bit mentally tired, which Delpo took advantage of very well. The window of opportunity for Delpo was still extremely small. Delpo showed in the Masters Cup later in the year that it was not a fluke win, when he beat Roger in the Masters Cup again. He also gave Roger one hell of a tough match in the French Open semi-finals earlier in the year, and if it wasn’t for the fact that he got tired, the result may have been different.

I think Delpo has the kind of game that can give Roger a lot of problems. In their last three matches Roger has really looked uncomfortable against him. This is because Delpo can literally overpower anyone, even the GOAT. The guy has the biggest game I have possibly ever seen. He has a big serve, maybe the biggest forehand the game has ever seen, and he doesn’t hold back on the backhand either. He has the heavy artillery to put the best of them under huge pressure, as he showed by making short work of Rafa in the semi-finals of the US Open. I mean he blasted the best defender in the game right off the court. Having said that, he did disappoint me a bit at the Australian Open. He was a different player from what he was at the US Open. It just looked like the pressure of being a grand slam champion got to him.

But he is also just 21 years old, and I still expect him to win many slams in the future. He just has to learn to deal with the pressure of being a favorite at the slams, in which case he will once again become a thorn in Roger’s side. For Roger’s sake I hope that doesn’t happen to soon, because he is one guy that can stop Roger from winning the grand slam this year. He is very dangerous on clay, and I definitely see him being a French Open champion in the future. It could even happen this year, but then he would have to go back to the relaxed, free flowing player he was before the Oz Open this year. The only thing that can stop him from being a multiple slam winner and a thorn in the GOAT’s side, is himself. I have always thought that he is mentally very strong, and I think it’s just a case of learning to deal with the pressure of being the favorite at slams for him to become a consistent threat.

I think in the future Delpo may just become The biggest threat for Roger. He is one of the new breed of young players who are tall and can hit any player off the court when they are on. I’m a little worried for Roger because I don’t think he has found a way yet to beat Delpo when he is on. Roger’s first serve percentage drops against Delpo because he has such a long reach on the return. From what I have seen, it’s very hard to ace him or get free points off the serve, which is an important part of Roger’s winning strategy. I think Roger feels so much pressure on serve against Delpo, which is why he starts missing first serves. People who don’t know any better thinks Roger lost the US Open final because he was not making many first serves, but there was a reason he didn’t. Delpo but immense pressure on him with his returns and started dominating the rally right away.

With Rafa not what he used to be, I think Delpo has the potential to become Roger’s main rival in the future. I think when both these players are at their best you have the potential for one hell of an encounter, like we saw at the US Open, although like I mentioned before Roger was just a little mentally tired after an emotional season.

2) Murray

Andy Murray has taken a while to settle, and that is no surprise with all the pressure that his been thrusted upon him by the Brits. He will soon turn 23, and it has been a slow but steady improvement from him over the years. You could see from his tears at the Oz Open final ceremony, that it has not been an easy road for him. But slowly but surely he is closing in on his first grand slam title and becoming a big threat at the majors. Like Roger said, Murray happens to play in a very tough era, and had it not been for Roger himself, Murray may already have had his first slam title. Roger also said that Murray is too good not to win a slam. I think Murray will eventually win a slam, but it may still take some time. Roger has shown once again Down Under that he will still be very tough to beat in the slams for some time to come.

But by making the final of the Oz Open and giving Roger a tough match, I think Murray has made a statement and will be one of Roger’s main rivals in the future. There is still room for improvement for Murray though. As you know, I predicted that Murray would feel the pressure in the final again, and even though he played pretty well, I think he could have at least salvaged a set out of the match. In key moments Murray missed some easy shots and was not attacking enough overall. He still has some way to go if he wants to put Roger under the kind of pressure that Delpo has been doing. Murray’s strength is his ability to make his opponent play his game and he feeds off their weaknesses. He does not have the big game that Delpo has that can put Roger under constant pressure. The match will always be on Roger’s racquet when they play, which is bad news for Murray.

Even if he played as attacking as he could against Roger and took all his opportunities, it’s still very doubtful whether he could have beaten Roger in the Oz Open final. When Roger is playing well he is just a better player then Murray. Simple as that. And that is of course no shame. Only Rafa has really been able to beat Roger in the slams on a consistent basis, and that was mostly on clay. Roger has now won the last three matches against Murray, which is pretty satisfying for me as a fan. After trailing 6-2 in head-to-head meetings against Murray at one point, Roger has now pulled it back to 6-5. Murray will be a tough rival for Roger in the future, but mostly on hard courts. And even then it will be hard for him. I think he has a better chance in the best of three set format, where Roger doesn’t always bring his best game. In the slams it will continue to be hard for him.

3) Rafa

Rafa has been plagued by injuries of late, and that is to be expected with his taxing game style and hectic schedule. And it is hard to see how he is going to change that. He can make his schedule slightly less demanding, but he doesn’t seem to learn and he is the kind of player that has to play a lot to stay on top anyway. As far as his game style goes it’s too late to change that, and too hard. So for me it’s hard to see how he will be the threat that he was before. I think come the clay season we may see some sort of a revival, but outside of clay I think it will continue to be hard for him. I keep sticking by this prediction because it is something I have predicted for a long time, long before Rafa started having injury problems. Rafa is a great player, but with his grinding game style it is just very tough to stay at the top. History have shown us this time after time with guys like Chang, Courier and Hewitt.

But you can’t just count him out either as a rival for Roger. I think on clay he will obviously still be a tough player to contend with for Roger, but outside of clay not the threat he was before. As injuries continues to plague him he will keep spending time away from tennis which won’t help his confidence level. There are guys like Delpo, Murray, Cilic, Davydenko, Soderling and other who can beat him now as well, which won’t help his confidence either. In the past it often happened that he got beaten in a tournament before he could meet Roger, and I see that trend continuing unless they start meeting in the earlier rounds, which could well be the case. It looks like Rafa could be ranked 5th come the French Open, which means that we could have a possible Fedal quarter final or semi-final.

This could happen at the US Open as well for instance, where Rafa never made it to the final to meet Roger. I would like this to happen, because it will give Roger a chance to improve his 7-13 head-to-head record with Rafa. Roger’s level hasn’t dropped much since his dominant years, while Rafa’s definitely seems to be dropping. That would give Roger the opportunity to improve his head-to-head record, but at the same time it could make things difficult for him early on in the slams. Rafa will always be a threat to Roger because of their history, one that I hope Roger can improve upon in the future.

4) Davydenko

Roger has a 13-2 head-to-head record against Davydenko, but Davydenko has won 2 of the last 3 matches against Roger. Even though he lost the most important match at the Australian Open recently, he still gave Roger his toughest match of the tournament. Davydenko is now the same age as Roger, and he is playing the best tennis of his career now. The match in the quarter finals of the Australian Open was worthy of a final. If Davydenko keeps this new found belief in his own abilities up, he can definitely become a big threat in the majors. He can also keep giving Roger problems in the three set format, if Roger does not bring his A game. In the slams it will be harder for him against Roger, as it is for everyone else. If Roger plays like he did in the Australian Open, he is unbeatable for everyone.

In fact if he keeps playing like that he has a very good chance at winning the grand slam this year. The only place that he could probably be stopped in that mode is at Roland Garros by Delpo or Rafa. It will also be interesting to see Davydenko fares on the dirt now.  He could be a real threat come the clay season, and could be a real threat at the French Open. Davydenko has shown that he is not scared of the GOAT anymore,  and should Roger be slightly off his game, Davydenko will be there to take advantage.

5) Djokovic

Djokovic has shown some good form during the latter part of the season last year, and he is now the nr. 2 player in the world for the first time. That doesn’t make him the biggest threat to Roger though. Djokovic has beaten Roger only once in a slam, and that was when Roger had mono and was far from his best. The only time I saw Djokovic beating Roger when Roger was actually playing near his best, was in the final of Montreal in 2007. When Djokovic won that match I thought the two of them will have one hell of a rivalry, but since then Djokovic has disappointed me somewhat. I just think that Djokovic lacks a bit in the mental department. Except for that loss in the 2008 Oz Open, Roger has beaten Djokovic with relative ease in the slams. Djokovic himself has not been to the final of a slam since he won the 2008 Oz Open.

To me it just looks like he has stagnated. He is still getting steady results, but nothing spectacular. He doesn’t seem to step it up when it really matters. I think for Djokovic to become a real threat to Roger, he has to work even harder at his fitness and become mentally stronger. Until he does that he won’t stand much of a chance in the really important matches.

So that’s it, the 5 guys who I think will be the biggest threat to Roger for some time to come, and no surprise that they are also the next 5 guys on the rankings behind Roger. The rest of the current top 10, Roddick, Soderling, Tsonga and Cilic, are all great players as well, but I don’t see them being as much as a threat as the guys I have mentioned.  We all know about Roger’s record with Roddick, while his record with Soderling is similar. In the semi’s of the Oz Open he showed what he can do against Tsonga, and although Cilic made an impressive run at the Oz Open, I don’t see him being much of a threat to Roger yet. People forget what a strong era of tennis this is, just because Roger is making it look so easy to dominate. Many guys in this era could have won a slam or more slams had it not been for Roger, and to a certain extent Rafa, ruling the slams with an iron fist.

The haters have even gone as far as to call this a weak era, in their desperation to make the GOAT’s achievements less impressive. But pay them no mind, tennis is getting stronger and stronger all the time. It’s becoming more competitive and professional all the time, which makes Roger’s achievements even more impressive. But in the end, if the GOAT keeps playing like he played in the Oz Open this year, rivals won’t mean all that much, because he will keep racking up the slams at will.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/DEUCE-Tennis/DEUCE-Australian-Open-2010/Roger-Federer.aspx

Now that Roger has won yet another grand slam title, I thought it might a good idea to look at some of the records that Roger has set up in his career so far. This is of course and ongoing thing, because Roger’s career is far from over as he proved by winning the Australian Open, dropping only two sets in the process. I don’t know about you, but it has taken a day or two for me to sunk it what Roger has once again done in Australia last week. What a privilege to be a Fedfanatic! I always found it hard to understand why you would want to be anything other than a Fedfanatic if you are a tennis fan. Not only does Roger almost always win, but he is a great guy! I know for sure I would not want to be a Nadal fan. Why support someone that was always destined to burn out due to his taxing game style?

That’s just setting yourself up for disappointment. Well, I guess to each their own right? OK lets get back to the records then. The number one on the ATP list is the record of winning 5 majors in a row at 2 different majors. I think it’s hard to say exactly what Roger’s best record is, but this one is certainly worthy of being number one. To do something that no one in the whole history of tennis has done is truly and exceptional feat. Back in the days of Bill Tilden the top seed only played one round in the majors as they were already in the final, so I don’t rate his records very highly. Roy Emerson won 5 consecutive majors, but they were at the Australian Open, which wasn’t always the most coveted major. for me Borg comes the closest to this record of Roger, as he won five consecutive Wimbledon crowns himself, and four consecutive French Open titles, which is probably the most demanding slam to win.

Next comes the major title record which Roger has now improved to 16, two clear of Pete Sampras. Sampras himself could only manage half the amount of Oz Open titles that Roger could, and no French Open titles. The only major where Sampras is still ahead of Roger is Wimbledon with 7 titles, but you would expect that Roger will equal that record this year as well, and finally improve on it. I think eventually Roger will smash every record that Sampras has set. It doesn’t look like anyone will stop him from passing Sampras’ record of 286 total weeks at the top of the ATP rankings. He is currently on 268 total weeks in the nr. 1 spot, and it doesn’t look like anyone will catch him in time. Rafa had a chance, but after the Oz Open he has dropped to nr. 4 in the rankings, and he has a huge amount of points to defend until the French Open.

Also it looks like Roger will be year end number one again, which means that he would have equalled Sampras’ record of 6 years ending nr. 1 in the rankings. The next year Roger will have a very good chance to break this record of Sampras as well. This could be the hardest record to break, but you would never bet against Roger to do that. Another record of Sampras that Roger will soon break, is his singles titles of 64. Roger is currently on 62 titles, and unless something unforeseen happens, Roger will break that record this season as well. Roger has already surpassed Sampras in career earnings to become the all time leader in career earnings. As far as the US Open goes, I expect Roger to win at least one more US Open title to pass Sampras and Conners in the most US Open titles in the open era.

But already he has done something they haven’t done which is to win 5 consecutive US Open titles. One other record that Sampras holds with Lendl, is the 5 Masters Cup titles. Roger is currently on 4, and again you won’t put it beyond him to break or at least equal that record. One of the most astonishing things about Roger’s records is that it is still ongoing. Only the day when he finally retires will we really be able to tell how good he was. I laugh at people who want to already begin the GOAT debate, as if Roger’s career is already over. It’s far from over, you can take my word for that. Roger has now proven that parenthood hasn’t made any difference to his tennis, so expect him to keep going like this for many years to come. The next record on the ATP list is the 18 of the last 19 grand slam finals that Roger has reached, which is pretty sick in itself.

He won the title 12 out of the 18 times he made the final, losing only to his nemesis Rafa. Of those losses 4 was on clay, which is understandable, while the ones at Wimbledon and the Oz Open was during a time that Roger was at a low point in his career. Rafa is the ultimate opportunist, picking up slam titles on Roger’s worst surface and when he was at a low in his career. At nr. 4 is the record consecutive grand slam semi-finals which Roger has now extended to 23, which together with the previous record, is testament to Roger’s ridiculous consistency in the majors. Personally I thought there was a very good chance this record would come to an end when Roger played against Davydenko in the quarter finals of the Oz Open. But again Roger would show why he is the king of grand slams.

You wonder who would be the one that would finally break this streak. The interesting thing is that there is a possibility that Roger and Rafa could meet in the quarter finals of the French Open this year. With Rafa having so many points to defend until the French Open, he could well fall to nr. 5 in the rankings,  which would mean there is a little less than 25% chance that they could meet in the quarter finals. You almost feel like it would take something like this for Roger to lose before the semi-finals of a slam, or else it may never happen. The next record is the 24 consecutive finals that Roger won, which is one I often overlook. In finals you play against the other best player of the tournament who is also full of confidence, and to beat that player 24 consecutive times shows what a dominant mental force Roger was.

Then at nr. 6 is the appearance in all 4 grand slam finals 3 times in his career. Rod Laver managed that feat 2 times in his career, but that was only on two surfaces, clay and grass. Another staggering record that is not on this list which is similar to this record, is that Roger won 3 majors in a year 3 times, in 2004, 2006 and 2007. The next record is the most dominant period in tennis from 2004-2006, when Roger was just untouchable. I fondly remember those days when, if Roger lost against anyone, it was a huge upset. I mean he just didn’t lose much at all. Its very doubtful that Roger would ever be that dominant again, because even though his level may not have dropped a whole lot from then, it’s hard to stay ahead of the competition forever. I think Roger can still be that dominant in the slams, but it will be hard to be that utterly dominant again.

The next record is pretty amazing as well, where Roger has held the nr. 1 ranking for the most consecutive weeks, eclipsing the previous record of 160 weeks by Jimmy Connors. Again it just shows that Roger dominated the sport unlike any other before him. Nr. 9 on the list is Roger’s 65 consecutive wins on grass courts. I never knew that Roger has 4 match points against him against Olivier in Halle in 2006. It’s as if Roger was destined to set up this record. Finally, at nr. 10 is the record of winning at least one grand slam a year for 8 consecutive years. There is no telling how much further Roger can push this record, which he currently shares with Sampras and Borg. He is almost guaranteed to break it, and i can see him winning slams for at least 2 more years after 2010. Well that’s the whole list then.

Just one thing more I’d like to say about the list, and that is that you can’t quantify the probability of the records being broken. To me that’s totally pointless. There is a good possibility that not one of these records will ever be broken. What Roger has done in tennis is almost divine, and it’s very hard to imagine another player like him coming around, nevermind better. And the most impressive thing is that his career is not over. He has just won another grand slam in dominant fashion, which would suggest that he is far from done. There is one thing which I would really like Roger to achieve, and that is to win the grand slam itself. I made a post about this earlier this year, saying that this year could be Roger’s best chance yet of doing so. Roger is a more mature and experienced player these days, and the fact that Rafa is struggling doesn’t hurt his chances either…

He did it! Roger finally won his fourth Australian Open title! He now ties Andre Agassi for the most Oz Open titles in the open era, which is yet another awesome achievement in this awesome athlete’s career. I said recently that this is one of the goals I hoped Roger would achieve, and he has wasted no time whatsoever in doing so. What a great start to the new decade! With this win Roger makes the peRFect start to the new decade, letting everyone know that he will be ruling the tennis world for a long time to come still. You know I keep saying these things, but I often wonder how seriously people take me. I’m sure many people have thought I’ve been too positive in the past and that I’m unrealistic in my predictions.

Yet time and time again Roger keeps proving me right. The guy is just that good. You simply can’t put anything beyond him, including the calender slam this year. At the start of the year I did a post about this, and even though Roger looked a bit shaky before the Oz Open, no one would bet against him winning the calender slam now. The French Open will be a tough one, but if he won it last year, he surely has a chance to do so again. Anyway no need to fuss about that now, for now I’m still basking in this sweet moment. To some extent this slam has also been eluding Roger, and the last two years has been very disappointing for him. Also, he hasn’t won a hard court grand slam since the 2008 US Open, which was starting to worry me just a little bit.

Therefor this slam win from Roger is one of the more satisfying for me as a fan. Especially after the big disappointment last year. As I said before, that was the lowest point for me as a fan, and with this win he has now erased that loss. And what is more is that Rafa has now dropped to nr. 4 in the rankings, which makes it extra sweet. Last year this time people were writing Roger off, and Rafa was going to be the next GOAT. How wrong they were! Roger has won three out of four majors since then, and it could have been four out of four had he not let that match slip against Delpo in the US Open final. So he may not have gotten the Federer slam, but he now has the chance to do something even better, which is the calender slam.

As far as today’s match goes, it played out pretty much exactly as I predicted in my previous post. Murray is was not ready to win a slam, but even if he was I’m not sure it would have made a difference. I definitely think he had his chances in the third set, but even if he had taken them, chances are good that Roger would have won the fourth set anyway. But this comes back to what I said in my previous post. Murray has a lot of pressure coming into this match, and when it mattered he pretty much choked. He was not only a break up in the third set, but he also squandered several opportunities in the third set tie break. Those are the type of opportunities you have to take in grand slam finals, especially against the GOAT.

In the end it may just have been the talk from Roger in the press before the match which psyched Murray out. But like I said, Roger was probably too good anyway. There is very few who can keep up with Roger when he is playing this well. There are player who can do it for one set, but very few who can actually beat him in this mode. One of the things I’ve been particularly impressed about from Roger in this major has been his backhand, especially in the latter rounds. It was just very consistent against Murray again today. The one thing Murray could do in the past was to exploit Roger’s weaker side with his own stronger backhand side, but not today. The first set was always going to be crucial, and although I thought Roger did not come as confident as I would have liked, he crucially won the first set.

Actually he looked quite nervous at the start, but found a way to break Murray which was enough. In the second set he got the break again, but squandered several opportunities to get a double break and virtually win the set. So when he did not take advantage of those opportunities, I can’t say that I was very pleased. The important thing was that he held serve with ease when he served for the set, so there was no need for regret. Then in the third set Murray got the break, and led 5-2 at one point. But this is where Murray showed he was not quite ready for grand slam glory just yet. It may not have made a difference to the outcome of the match against Roger had he taken the third set, but against a lesser player it could have cost him the title.

For me Murray was too timid once again in this match, but I predicted this would happen. He didn’t go for his shots enough when it mattered, reverting back to the defensive game style which we have seen so much from him in pressure situations. If Murray wants to win slam in the future he still has some way to go. But at least this major can be seen as progress for him, because he didn’t go away again like he did in the US Open final in 2008. It is starting to look like Murray and Del Potro will be the big threats to Roger in the future, with Rafa still slipping away and Djokovic not improving his game. I felt bad for Murray in the post match presentation, where it was him this time who couldn’t fight off the tears.

He is trying really hard to win a slam with all the expectation from the silly British media. It can’t be easy. I never liked Murray much, but I actually gained respect for him today. I think it’s good that he cried like that. It shows he cares. Maybe people will stop making such a big deal about Roger’s tears last year now, because it was only because he cared more than anyone that he cried more than anyone. After Roger broke Sampras’ slam record last year, I told you that this is where the fun starts. I think many people doubted that and that I was overly optimistic, but that was really true. This part of Roger’s career is the most fun part for me, because most of the pressure is off now, and he can just go ahead and smash all the records and keep mesmerizing us.

I mean who can really tell how many more slams he can win, how many records he can still break, and how much longer he can remain number one. The doubters and pessimists will always doubt, it is in their nature. But who cares about them anyway? The true Fedfanatics know that there is no limits to what this man can achieve, and we are now entering a very exciting phase of his career. Even me, the eternal optimist, will admit that I doubted Roger for the first time this year coming into the Australian Open. He just looked out of sorts. But it should be clear once and for now that no matter how badly Roger performs before a slam, it has no bearing whatsoever on his chances at a particular slam. What does the future hold?

There is no line on the horizon…

Presser: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2010-01-31/201001311264858828906.html

Here are some interesting videos I found of Roger’s post match interview as well. I found the first one particularly funny, when he admits that talent does help a lot and everyone laughs. In the second on he talks about that drop shot he played on a match point in the tie break, which personally I was very annoyed about. Actually this match was quite close, even though it was straight sets.

It is almost time for the grand finale, but not before I have my final say(pun intended ). I wrote down some thoughts about the final in my previous post, but I left much unsaid. Last year we had an an epic final of course, but for Fedfanatics the outcome was heartbreak. For me personally it was the lowest point as Roger’s fan. The title was Roger’s for the taking, after Rafa has played the second semi-final and had that marathon match against Verdasco. It was his chance for payback after losing the 2008 Wimbledon final to Rafa, yet somehow he managed to let it get away from him. Now it’s that time of year again, and even though it won’t be Rafa across the net from him, he will have the chance to make up for that loss when he faces another one of his big rivals.

Having said that, I don’t believe Murray is in the same league as Rafa. That may change some day, but so far he has not even come close to the mental prowess of the Spaniard. So far Murray has cracked each and every time under the pressure of expectation in grand slams. But then again, maybe that is just part of his development? We can’t know for sure until a few more years have passed. But lets be honest, Murray did disappoint in the majors last year. There has just been so much expectation thrust upon him, that you almost can’t blame him. Like Roger said, the British haven’t had a major champion in something like 150 000 years? Lol. I can sort of understand how Murray must be feeling, because the Brits want a major and they want it now.

It’s not really fair to be honest. But was it fair when Rafa had to play the second semi-final last year and play a marathon against Verdasco? No. Yet he still won the final. The slams are the playground of the big boys. There are no room for excuses or timidity. And so far Murray has been timid in the slams. He underperformed in all the slams, or at least the Australian Open and US Open. I will give him the benefit of the doubt at the French Open and Wimbledon, because he is not really a clay court specialist, and at Wimbledon there is extra pressure on him. Also, he did have his best results ever at both those tournaments. So I suppose that could be seen as progress. But he really disappointed at the Australian Open, where he was the pre tournament favorite.

Roger’s relaxed attitude is the most worrying prospect for Murray going into the final.

At the US Open he was yet again a big favorite, but he was completely dominated by Cilic in the fourth round. This year I think Murray did a smart thing. He didn’t play in Doha like he usually did. Instead he played in the Hopman Cup for Britain, which is a pretty low key event. He even lost to Tommy Robredo in the final, which I think was a blessing in disguise for him. This means Murray had no pressure on him this time around coming into the Australian Open. He was still one of the favorites, but there was nowhere near the amount of hype surrounding him as was the case last year. For Murray this was important, because so far he has not responded well under the pressure of expectation. This meant he came into the Australian Open under the radar and he could play his best game.

But, here is problem for Murray. Even though he is now in the final and have played some fantastic tennis, the pressure has increased on him with every match. The pressure does not go away, it increases. In the semi-finals against Cilic, it was clearly evident that the pressure was once again taking its toll on the Scot. Until he broke Cilic in the second set with a stroke of genius, he looked like that same lost boy we have seen so many times in the slams last year. You can clearly notice it, it’s there for everyone to notice who has eyes to see. It is written all over his face and body language. I’m sure Murray will feel he has exorcised some of those demons against Cilic. But I think Murray was slightly fortunate that Cilic had played three five set matches already at that point.

He was just too tired to cause another momentum shift in the match. I don’t think there was much between the two players. Had Cilic been rested, it could well have turned out to be an epic five set match. The real test for Murray comes when he faces the GOAT in the final. Personally I feel Murray is under extreme pressure going into this final, more extreme than ever. He faces the most successful player in grand slam history. That fact alone is enough to fill Murray with fear. Add to that the fact that Roger blasted Tsonga right off the court in the semi-finals, and all this talk from Roger in the media, I wouldn’t be surprised if Murray is that lost boy once more. Some matches are won before the players step on court, and this might well be the case here.

I know I wouldn’t want to be going into my second slam final, having lost the first against the same player, knowing that the GOAT wants to tear me to shreds. That’s a pretty scary prospect, because like the match against Tsonga, Roger has the ability to make his opponents look really bad. A thought that may be going through Murray’s mind is: “What if he does to me what he did to Tsonga? How ridiculous would I look if he does that to me for the second time in a slam final, especially after so much is expected of this final?” Roger has made it clear that he feels no pressure going into this final, and for me that is maybe the scariest part from a Murray point of view. I mean how must it feel, knowing that you have everything to prove, against the GOAT who has already proven it all?

Not to mention that the GOAT is in ominous form. But of course being the GOAT brings its own pressures. You tread a very thin line. As the GOAT you are expected to win just about everything. And I know Roger desperately wants this title. How many chances will he still get to win it? And should he lose an important match like this to a young upcoming player like Murray, it will give others players the hope that they can do the same. People will also say that Roger can’t win hard court slams anymore. He lost to Rafa and Del Potro in the two hard court slam finals last year, so losing to Murray here wouldn’t exactly be the best idea. Also, if Roger wants to extend his career for as long as he says, then he needs to start this new decade with a win at the first slam.

He needs to remind all the players that he is still the dominant force going into the new decade, or else it could become just harder and harder for him to win slams from now on. Winning the first slams of the year really sets you up for the rest of the year. It takes a big load off your shoulders, knowing that you already have one in the bag with three to go. So for Roger there is really everything to play for. But, here is the big BUT. If Roger retired today he would have achieved most of his main goals. The same can not be said for Murray. He has everything left to prove. So as far as pressure goes, Murray has by far the most going into this match. And on top of that Roger was smart by making Murray understand this fact very clearly by his talk in the media.

This Roger is an intelligent guy, make no mistake about it. He knows how to create pressure, not just on court but off it as well. People who criticize this first of all have no clue about professional sport whatsoever, and second they are utterly boring. Don’t think for one second Roger has not noticed that Murray has felt the pressure of expectation in the past, and he is now using that against him. It’s beautiful. I think it’s worth it to not only appreciate Roger’s beautiful tennis on court, but also his mental intelligence off it. Or else you will miss half of what Roger is about. Taking everything in this post into account, I feel that Roger is the firm favorite to win this match. I know there is a lot of people who think it’s just about impossible to call this match, but I don’t feel like that at all.

I guess these people have missed something. Or maybe they don’t understand the mental dynamics of tennis, which is by far the most important aspect of the sport. You can have all the talent and physical abilities in the world, but if you are mentally weak you will get nowhere. This is the part of Murray’s game that will be severely tested once again when action gets under way on Rod Laver Arena. We know Murray has all the talent and physical abilities, but there has always been a question mark over his mental strength. For Murray to win this match I think will take an enormous mental effort, and should he do so, it will be a huge breakthrough in his career. Personally I don’t think he is ready. May the best man win.

Seriously, I’m not joking. Today I think Roger was toying with Tsonga. He simply could do no wrong. Just looking at the score and the match stats makes that pretty obvious. The fact that Tsonga couldn’t create one single break point opportunity on Roger’s serve, was probably the most telling statistic. Another telling statistic is that Roger made only 13 unforced errors in the whole match. That’s just over 4 unforced errors a set. Add to that the fact that he hit about 3 times as many winners, you can see just what a clinical performance that was from Roger. I know Roger doesn’t like stats much, but still it’s interesting to look at them. With this win Roger has now made 18 of the last 19 grand slam finals, which shows Roger’s mind blowing consistency in the majors.

There’s not much to say about the match against Tsonga really. It was just one of those matches where everything worked peRFectly. Tsonga looked a bit flat after his two five set matches, but I don’t know if it would have made a difference anyway. It was almost a carbon copy of the Hanescu match, which Roger won by the same score. It was also ironic that it was the same score that Tsonga beat Rafa by in the semi-finals of the Oz Open in 2008. But this time Tsonga found out what it was like to be on the receiving end. It seemed like Roger could do what he wanted. It looked like he could hit a winner whenever he wanted, which makes me think he was basically toying with Tsonga.

It also reminded me of the Hanescu match, because as in that match, Roger had a tough four set match in the previous round. When Roger comes through a tough match like the Andreev and Davydenko matches, it invariably gives him a lot of confidence. This is later in the tournament though, which means that this was even better than the Hanescu match. The backhand down the line was working nicely, which means that Roger was fully confident. You feel sorry for Roger’s opponents when he is in this mode, because they have no chance whatsoever. They might as well be a spectator. With this match Roger has now made a big statement going into the final, and he even rubbed it in at the post match interview, when he put the pressure on Murray some more.

You can find the interview at the bottom of this post. I just love when Roger does this. I think this kind of talk makes tennis exciting, unlike some boring whiners who claim that Roger is putting his opponents down. That is just scared Murray fans who hates Roger. If anything, Roger always respects his opponents and compliments them. But there is nothing wrong with putting pressure on your opponent. In fact that is your job as a tennis player. There is no rule that says you can’t do it off the court, and it adds some much needed spice to the sport. This is not golf after all. So lets look at some of the things Roger had to say:

Q. Normally the guy who plays you has nothing to lose at all. Andy is in a slightly different predicament. Do you think that will affect his game at all?

ROGER FEDERER: Uhm, don’t know. I mean, look, he’s in his second Grand Slam final now. I think the first one’s always a bit tougher than the second one. But now that he didn’t win the first one, I think doesn’t help, you know, for the second one around.Plus he’s playing, you know, me, who’s won many Grand Slams prior to that, been able to win here three times so I know what it takes and how to do it, which is definitely an advantage.

I don’t feel like the pressure’s really on me having to do it again, because I did it before. I think he really needs it more than I do, you know. So I think the pressure’s big on him.

But we’ll see how he’s gonna handle it. It’s not going to be easy for him, that’s for sure.

Haha awesome! I just love how Roger takes all the pressure off himself and puts it squarely on Murray’s shoulders. That is the advantage of winning the most slam titles in history. Roger really doesn’t have much left to prove, so he can afford this kind of talk. Even if he loses to Murray it won’t be all that big a deal. That doesn’t mean I don’t very much want to see him win this major, it just means the pressure if off. The thing about what Roger says, is that it is all true. So no one can claim that he is being unsportsmanlike. There is a lot of pressure on Murray to win this match, because he was in a slam final before and folded against Roger. So first of all the pressure will be on him not to fold this time around. That is just the first objective.

Should he be able to make the match competitive, only then can he start focusing on winning. And with Roger coming into the final after a crushing win over Tsonga, there will now be even more pressure on Murray. If the match with Tsonga was at least competitive, it would have given Murray some hope, but Roger was literally toying with Tsonga. Surely that has to put fear into Murray, who will already be feeling teh pressure of expectation. In the match against Cilic, Murray looked like he would once again crack under the pressure of expectation. Only a moment of brilliance, when he hit a winner after Cilic hit a lob over his head, helped him to get out of his predicament. After that the momentum had swung, and Cilic was too tired towards the end to cause another momentum swing in his favor.

If Murray was already showing signs of cracking under the pressure against Cilic, I predict that a final against the GAOT will be too much for him to handle. I think he could make it competitive, but there is also the possibility that he can implode like he did in the US Open final. Roger looks to be back to his very best, which can mean only one thing: If Murray plays at his very best, he will get a set off Roger. Judging by how well Murray has played this tournament, and because of the fact that he is now in his second slam final, I will at least admit that there is a possibility that he can do better this time. But like I said, not necessarily. The way Roger played against Tsonga, and all this talk from Roger in the media afterwards, may just cause enough pressure for Murray to fold once again.

Murray will feel the pressure, there is no doubt. He has shown signs of feeling the pressure against Cilic, and the pressure just increases ten fold when you are in a grand slam final and facing the GOAT, who happens to be in ominous form. Lets look at some more talk from Roger in the media:

Q. You’ve won finals against Andy, but he’s got the better record. Why do you think that is?

ROGER FEDERER: Well, because, first of all, he’s a good player. I don’t think otherwise you’re just gonna start having good records against me.

But, no, without having any ‑‑ taking anything away from him, but I think a few times he played me I wasn’t at my very, very best. I think I played him on a couple of occasions. Dubai the first time we played, I just came back from resting, my mono, and everything. I know some don’t like to hear it. Some still don’t believe me for some reason.

I played him maybe at times when I wasn’t at my very, very best. We had some close matches on many occasions where I thought I was in control and I ended up giving the match away by making errors of my own. That was definitely because of his play and the way he plays.

So I think the head‑to‑head could be quite different. But that’s why I don’t really care too much about how the head‑to‑head stands. Every match is played differently. Best‑of‑five is anyway very different. He’s done well against me to win so many matches when he was able to beat me when he was supposed to.

First off all Roger gives credit to Murray for being a good player, but he also admits that he wasn’t always at his best when he played against Murray. I’ve always thought that this was the case, hence Roger didn’t have too much trouble beating Murray in their last two meetings. In Cincinnati he beat Murray in straight sets, and at the Masters Cup he beat him 6-1 in the third set. Both comfortable wins. And of course those two matches came after 2008-beginning 2009, where Roger was struggling by his own high standards. As soon as Roger came out of his slump by winning Wimbledon and the French Open, he had little trouble beating Murray. It’s still hard to believe for me when I hear people say that the whole mono thing meant nothing, and that it was just an excuse.

In my mind 2008 was a bit of a disaster by Roger’s own high standards, caused by mono that he had at the start of 2008. It’s mind boggling that after the way Roger came out of that slump with flying colours, that people still believe it was just an excuse. But as always Roger makes his racquet do the talking. There is no need to convince anyone with words, it is clearly evident in his results. The bad news for Murray is that this is the best of five sets, which is Roger’s speciality. The only time they have met in a five set match was at the US Open final, when Roger made Murray look bad with a score of 6-2, 7-5, 6-2. I think Murray could be more confident this time around, but he can also still lose in straight sets.

The following part of the interview gives a good idea of what to expect from the match:

Q. The last two matches where you did beat him and stop the four‑match losing streak, were there any things in Murray’s game that you found that you could exploit more now?

ROGER FEDERER: Not really. I always felt, you know, if I played well, I had my chance. If I don’t play well, I’m gonna lose, you know. It’s been against many sort of counterpunchers, guys that keep the ball in play.

Hewitt used to be that way. Nalbandian used to be that way. I knew if I was not going to play a good match, you know, you could just walk off the court and shake hands and say, Well done.

But I usually don’t play bad matches anymore. If I do, it’s maybe a few games here and there like everybody else.

No, I mean, you know, he’s consistent. He’s one of the best return players we have in the game. He’s been able to improve many things in his game that make it harder today to beat him. I just think I played a good match in London. He didn’t maybe catch his best day. So it was one of those matches I got the better of him.

This is pretty much what it comes down to. If Roger is on his game, Murray can’t beat him. Period. Roger has too many weapons for Murray and if he is at his attacking best, there will be no stopping him. Murray has been playing more attacking tennis of late, especially in the Rafa match, but it is still nowhere near as good as Roger. Retrieving will always be a part of Murray’s game. He is good at taking advantage of an attacking player when they are not at their best, which is why he has beaten Roger in the past. In their last two matches however, he could not beat Roger because Roger was at his attacking best. And that was not even in a slam final. The point is that the match is on Roger’s racquet, and it will always be when he plays against Murray.

Murray has superb defensive skills, but it won’t be enough if Roger is on. I’m sure Murray will try to be more aggressive this time and mix things up, and if he is successful he can make this competitive. I think if Murray mixes up attacking and defensive play, and keep Roger guessing,  he has a decent chance. Even so, I think Roger will just be to good. Roger can mix it up as well if necessary, and if a certain game plan doesn’t work, he can also change things up. Roger said in his post match interview on court with Jim Courier, that he will be playing attacking tennis, which for me is the key. If he plays a similar match than he did against Tsonga, I don’t think Murray has much of a chance. No one has. Go get nr. 16 champ!

Prediction: Roger in 4.

Presser: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2010-01-29/201001291264764402546.html

Ps. The post match interview with Courier was a gem. If you missed it you can view it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQB_QRwDXPk

Wow what a match! Simply magnificent performance from the GAOT. This was an extraordinary match the likes of which I haven’t see in a while. It was the worst possible start for the GOAT, looking like a frightened child out there. It looked like the two recent losses and all Davydenko’s talk in the media had indeed scared Roger. Personally I was extremely disappointed by Roger’s start. I thought this was the last thing he needed, to show Davydenko that he was full of fear. The way Roger came out gave Davydenko a big shot in the arm. He responded by breaking Roger twice in the first set, and at the start of the second set he broke again. At this point I felt like the match could be over very quickly, and was seriously questioning Roger’s GOAT status.

How can someone who won 15 slam titles look so scared of a virtual nobody, compared to himself? It just didn’t seem right. I knew for a fact Sampras was never scared of anybody, and Roger’s fear against Rafa and in the past and first set today, really had me doubting. However, it wasn’t going to be long before my doubts would be put to rest. At 2-3 in the second set the shadows had finally overcome the sunlight, and covered Rod Laver Arena. As I told you in my last post, a day match would favor Davydenko, while a night match would favor Roger. It was uncanny then that as soon as the shadows passed over centre court, Roger made his move. With Davydenko serving, Roger managed to somehow produce a break point, and he took full advantage with a stunning cross court forehand winner on the run.

This was the key point of the match where everything changed. Roger broke again at 4-3, after challenging a cross court forehand passing shot that was called out at 30-0. It turned out to have clipped the line, and for a second time in the match Roger had gotten a challenge right. He then took the break point at 40-0 to to break to love. From here on Roger went on a 13 game winning streak. It began at 3-1 in the second set and ended at 2-0 in the third, when Davydenko finally held serve. Davydenko started to show signs of a revival, as he broke back in the fourth set. However, Roger would get the break once more at 4-4, and at 5-4 and serving for the match he held a match point at 40-30. Incredibly Davydenko would hit two return winner off first serves, and broke Roger with a backhand cross court passing shot.

This was nervous times, because Davydenko was starting to gain momentum again. If Davydenko managed to push this match into a fifth set, any result was possible. But again Roger would come up with the goods. He broke Davydenko at 5-5, after he pressured him into missing a forehand approach that tipped the net and went long. Then at 6-5 Roger was not going to be denied again, as he held serve to love. Just another astonishing win by the GAOT. The fact that he denied Davydenko the fourth set, was an astonishing feat in itself. The fact that Davydenko could break Roger twice in a short period in the fourth set was an ominous sign, yet Roger still found a way to win without entering a tie break. Also the way Roger turned things around after a shocking start was legendary.

With this win Roger has now extended his grand slam semi-final streak to 23, and reinforced his GAOT status in the process. This was a significant win on many levels. After the exit of Rafa in the quarter finals, and the exit of Djokovic against Tsonga today, Roger has once again shown that he is simply in another dimension than these guys. I mean Rafa and Djokovic is several years younger than Roger, yet Roger keeps performing better than them in the slams. Rafa’s loss against Murray in the quarter-finals was another big setback for the Spaniard, as he withdrew in the third set with yet another knee injury. This win from Roger is a tribute to his economic game style, peRFect technique, and athleticism.

Someone like Rafa has written off his body at age 23,  just to be able to rival Roger at the top for a few years. Yet Roger keeps notching up the wins in slams at age 28 as if it’s nothing at all. There is still some deluded Rafa fans and haters that has to understand once and for all that Roger Federer is in a class of his own. There is no one in today’s highly competitive men’s game that comes even close to him. Davydenko has beaten Roger twice in a row now outside of slams, one of those wins coming at the Masters Cup. Yet when it came to a grand slam, Roger again put him back firmly in his place. I mean you run out of words to describe what this individual is doing in tennis. The Federer legend is still growing, make no mistake about it.

For me Roger is now the favorite to win this slam for the fourth time. I am someone who is usually very optimistic about Roger’s tennis, but even I was having my doubts about Roger’s chances of beating Davydenko today. The performance against Hewitt did give me hope though. Having said that, the start of the match was horrible from Roger today, and I thought this was truly the end of the semi-final streak. Roger is hard to understand at times. But I guess that is just the nature of genius. In a way he is quite an emotional player, but he finds a way around that to still be incredibly consistent in the slams. Roger admitted after the match that he took a bathroom break to use up time, so that the remaining sunshine on court could be extinguished by the shadows, however little amount.

That makes me think: What if the women’s matches did not both go into three sets? What if it was over sooner? That would have meant that Roger may not have gotten that break in the second set, which means that he may not have recovered in time to beat Davydenko! But it never ceases to amaze me how the gods seems to be on Roger’s side. I guess they really like Roger, because he is just such a clean guy. They can’t help but love and favor him. Lol! It’s as if the universe conspired to give him a chance to extend his semi-final streak just a little bit longer. As you know by now, I just love being a Fedfanatic! Roger now faces Tsonga, who upset Djokovic in a pretty strange match that went to five sets. The score was 7-6(8), 6-7(5), 1-6, 6-3, 6-1.

Djokovic was suffering from vomiting and diarrhea before the match, and I think during the match as well. It’s a bit of a shame and I feel a bit sorry for Djokovic. This is now the second year in a row that he has health problems, after he withdrew against Roddick in the quarter finals last year due to heat stroke. All credit to Tsonga though, who makes the semi-finals of the Oz Open for a second time now. He has also played two five setters in a row, after never having played a five set match prior to his match against Almagro in the fourth round. I wonder if  Tsonga’s long matches of late will have an effect on his performance against Roger. Tsonga is a great athlete. so it won’t necessarily affect him much. As I said before, if Roger wins his quarter final match, I expect him to go all the way.

I don’t think Tsonga will stop him, and neither do I think Murray or Cilic can stop him. I expect Murray to be in the final, and even though he has looked particularly sharp in the tournament, I still have to favor the GOAT. The Davydenko match was worthy of a final, but the scary thing is that Roger can probably even play better than he did against Davydenko. I mean the first set was not exactly vintage Federer now was it? Murray faces Cilic in the first semi-final tomorrow. Cilic had yet another five set win over Roddick, and even though he beat Murray at the US Open in straight sets, I think it ends here for him. Murray has been looking very sharp and Cilic surely have to be be out of gas by now.

It does look like a Federer/Murray final doesn’t it? That would be a terrific final, but we’re not there yet and you just never know with tennis. Congrats to Roger for reaching a 23rd straight grand slam semi-final, and may the streak continue for many more years!

Presser: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2010-01-27/201001271264586234312.html

First of all let me get back to day 7 action at the Oz Open. All the top seeds won, accept for Delpo. He was upset by Marin Cilic, one of the dark horses of the tournament, in a tough five set encounter, 5-7 6-4 7-5 5-7 6-3. Delpo has been a disappointment in this tournament for me, after I picked him as the second favorite to win the tournament. He has not dealt well with the pressure of expectation after winning the US Open, and was really a shadow of a player he was in New York. It just goes to show that winning slams is no joke. Roddick himself was involved in a titanic struggle with Gonzalez, winning 6-3 3-6 4-6 7-5 6-2. There was some controversy in the fourth set when Gonzalez let a ball go and it was called out.

Roddick challenged the the call and hawk eye showed that the ball landed in. The umpire gave the point to Roddick, because he said that Gonzalez didn’t have a play on the ball. Whatever the case may be, Gonzalez should not have left the ball. It was kinda controversial, but Gonzalez was 40-0 up in that game and was serving, so he didn’t really have any business losing that game anyway. In the end Roddick has a good record against Gonzalez and I think he was the better player. Rafa took care of Karlovic in four sets, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, looking pretty good in the process. Murray on the other hand looked really impressive in disposing of Isner in straight sets, 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-2. The Murray/Rafa match will be one of the matches of this tournament, I’m sure of it.

I’ts actually really hard to pick a winner. Murray looks sharper than Rafa, but Rafa has the experience and has done it before. Murray will have t0 be more bold than he has in the past though. Rafa is the best defensive player out there and if Murray does not play enough attacking tennis, he will lose I think. As for Cilic against Roddick, that one is pretty hard to call itself. Cilic could be tired I think from a lot of court time, so for me Roddick has the edge. So lets take a look at day 8 action then. First up it was Davydenko against Verdasco. Davydenko took control of the match as he took the first two sets. However, when serving at 4-5 in the third set, he served a double fault at 40-40, after which Verdasco tookhttp://ruansfedererblog.com/wp-admin/post-new.php advantage of the set point.

That was a key point in the match, because up to that point Davydenko was cruising while Verdasco was really struggling. Verdasco then won the fourth set as well, but in the end Davydenko was too good. He won 6-2, 7-5, 4-6, 6-7 (5), 6-3. Then as expected Djokovic took care of Lukaz Kubot 6-1, 6-2, 7-5. From what I’ve heard he looked pretty sharp as well. The other match which result I did not quite expect, was the one between Tsonga and Almagro. I though Tsonga would win, but not in an epic five set match. It was a high quality affair, with Tsonga winning 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-7, 9-7. We have had some great five set matches in this tournament and this was certainly one of the best. Finally we get to Roger’s match against Hewitt today.

It was a vintage display from the GOAT. Everything aside from the volleys was working really well today. The thing that I was most impressed with was his backhand. I’ve always said when his backhand down the line is working well it’s a sign that he is confident, and that was the case against Hewitt. The forehand was working very well again, and all of this was made possible by very good movement from the champ. Roger’s first serve percentage was healthy at 63%, while the winners outnumbered the unforced errors 49-27. So it was a clinical performance from the master. The only thing that wasn’t so great was his volleys, because he only won 54% of net points. That could be due to the fact that Hewitt makes it difficult for his opponent at the net, by hitting dipping passing shots to their feet.

I was very pleased by this performance from Roger, especially now that he has to play against Davydenko. We are now at a crucial stage of the tournament, the quarter finals. What happens now will tell us whether all this talk of Roger and Rafa’s demise is for real. Both Roger and Rafa have very tough opponents now. We know Davydenko can give Roger problems, while Murray has beaten Rafa in a slam before in the semi-finals of the US Open. The match against Hewitt was obviously impressive. I thought it could be a much tougher match, bu this was Roger close to his devastating best. I thought Hewitt actually played really well, and got better as the match went on. So to beat him by that score was really good stuff from Roger.

Davydenko on the other hand looked vulnerable for the first time. So as far as I’m concerned Roger is going to beat Davydenko. I just think Roger has stepped up and showed what a force he is in the slams, while Davydenko wasn’t as convincing. The time of day they play could have an influence however. If they play during the day I think that could help Davydenko, while if they play at night it would favor Roger. Either way this will be a very interesting match that I can’t wait to watch. As far as Rafa and Murray is concerned, I find that a bit harder to call. Murray has beaten Rafa in a slam before and he looked more impressive than Rafa in their previous round. On the other hand, this surface is slower than the US Open where Murray beat Rafa the last time, and Rafa has been more successful in slams.

Djokovic against Tsonga will be yet another classic encounter, with Djokovic probably the slight favorite. Djokovic has had a very easy draw to the quarter finals though, so the lack of any tough matches may count against him. Well all the top seeds except for Delpo went through in the previous round then. This time it’s harder to call. I’m gonna go with Roger, Djokovic, and Roddick going through, while this time the Rafa vs Murray match is the hard one for me to call. I would like to see at least one ‘upset’, so I’m gonna hope for Murray. That would also remove a major threat from the draw for Roger, although I wouldn’t mind seeing Roger overturn the result of last year against Rafa in the final. Enjoy the action!

Presser: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2010-01-25/201001251264419400937.html

I didn’t post yesterday, so I have some things to catch up on from day 5 at the Oz Open. First of all we had a look at Rafa’s form when he faced a decent player, Philip Kohlschreiber. It turned out to be a tough match, with Rafa edging out Kohlschreiber 6-4, 6-2, 2-6, 7-5. It was similar to Roger’s match against Andreev. Kohlschreiber had his chances in the fourth set, but as with Andreev, the moment was too big for him. He started making unforced errors when it mattered most. This is why Roger and Rafa are winning the slams, and not guys like Andreev and Kohlschreiber. Having said that, neither Roger nor Rafa look as confident as they have in the past. They both look human for a change. Both of them have potentially very difficult quarter final opponents.

Roger looks like he will face Davydenko, while Rafa could face Murray. We are not there yet, but I can’t help feeling that either of them could lose come quarter final stage. So far Davydenko and Murray has looked the best, neither having lost a set. That said, both have had probably the easiest draws. So in fact we can’t make any real conclusions. I think the fourth round matches will give us a much better idea. I don’t know about you, but I just love how this tournament is unfolding. With every round that passes, new secrets are revealed. In the fourth round there is hardly any easy matches. Roger, Rafa, Davydenko and Murray will all be tested, which should give us a better idea of where they’re at. Roger faces Hewitt, Rafa faces Karlovic, Davydenko faces Verdasco, and Murray faces Isner.

Personally I think all of them will win, but you just never know. Whatever happens, it will give us a better idea of what these players are really up to. Murray and Davydenko will be tested for the first time, while Roger and Rafa will both have tricky opponents as well. As I have remarked in my preview of the Oz Open, I really think that the quarter final stage of this tournament will be a pivotal point. That is where we will find out whether Roger and Rafa is really being caught by the fied like everyone says. But first Murray and Davydenko has to make it through, as well as Roger and Rafa, so I will not dwell on it too much just yet. Against Kohlschreiber, Rafa looked vulnerable, yet when the important moment came, he still got the job done.

Roger on the other hand had little trouble disposing of Albert Montanes. He wasn’t as impressive as he was against Hanescu though. The unforced errors actually outnumbered the winners, while against Hanescu the winners by far outnumbered the unforced errors. The thing that helped Roger in this match was once again the serve, which was about the same as in the Hanescu match. Off the ground there were too many unforced errors. There were too many mishits, and the backhand was erratic. If Roger plays like this against Davydenko he will lose, that much is sure. But it’s also just as sure that he won’t play like this against Davydenko. Roger has always played better as the tournament went on and risen to the occasion.

He now faces Hewitt, who got a walk over in the second set against Baghdatis, after Baghdatis had a shoulder injury. I think Hewitt could test Roger. Usually he doesn’t stand much of a chance, but after Roger’s match against Montanes, I’m still not convinced about his form. I do think however that Roger will win. Whether it will be another heart stopper I just don’t know. Maybe another heart stopper is just what Roger needs. Remember what happened after Roger beat Andreev? He was simply awesome against Hanescu. So maybe he needs something like that if he wants to beat Davydenko, even if as a fan it’s not so easy to endure heart stoppers. As for Davydenko, he had another easy straight sets victory over Juan Monaco, and is looking awfully good.

He now plays Verdasco, who also got a walk over after the first set against Stefan Koubek. Verdasco has looked pretty sharp of late, but whether he will beat Davydenko is doubtful. Davydenko just looks in very good touch and very determined to me. Rafa is playing against Karlovic like I said, who overcame Ivan Ljubicic in four tough sets. Karlovic has of course that huge serve, and he will be a tricky opponent for Rafa as well. But again I think Rafa will prevail. In other matches, Tsonga won over Haas in a tough four set match, while Roddick won over Lopez also in a tough four set encounter. Djokovic had an easy win over Denis Istomin, while Del Potro had yet another tough four set match against Florian Mayer.

I honestly don’t know what to make of Del Potro. He has been an enigma in this tournament. I think it has to do with his grand slam success at the US Open last year. He is still dealing with the pressure of expectation. He has now had the most court time of all sixteen players remaining in the draw. Surely at some point it has to take it’s toll, and I’m not convinced about his fitness either. He does however face Cilic next, who has had the second most court time so far, after a four set win over Wawrinka. This is probably the hardest of the fourth round matches for me to call. If I have to make a call I’d say Del Potro, just because he has done it all before. But even if he wins, he would probably have had another tough match against Cilic, and it must catch up with him eventually.

For the rest of the fourth round matches, I think all the top seeds will win, but it could be harder for them then we think. All the men’s matches from day 7 will be interesting, and I’m preparing myself for an absorbing night’s viewing. Laters.

Presser: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2010-01-23/201001231264223092031.html

I suggested in my last post that the Andreev match would give Roger a lot of confidence, and that seems to be exactly what happened. With this clinical performance today it is safe to say that Roger is now back on form after a shaky start to the year. It did take a bit of a scare against Andreev, but Roger once again has to be the favorite to take this title. Still it won’t be easy, and there are several possible stumbling blocks on his way to the title. It’s just that I feel much more confident now that he can overcome those stumbling blocks. It was pretty much a clinic from Roger out there today. As you can see the first serve percentage was a very healthy 67%, the winners outnumbered the unforced errors by 52-16, and Roger won the point 81% of the time when he approached the net.

You can’t ask for a much cleaner performance that that. Roger’s forehand was clicking really well, hitting winner after winner from that side. The most important thing was that he moved well. Once he moves well the rest fall into place. Roger broke serve twice in the first set, once in the second set, and twice in the third. I was hoping for a bagel in the final set, and it almost happened as Roger had break points at 4-0. Hanescu did well to hang in there though and had a break point of his own with Roger serving for the match at 5-2. Roger was not in the mood to be broken today though, and held serve for the win. I must say I am happy and relieved by this performance after a shaky start to the year for Roger. I guess it’s simply a given that Roger brings his best form for the slams, no matter what happened beforehand.

Next for Roger is Albert Montanes, who won his match against a guy called Robert today after losing the first two sets. Pretty good effort from the Spaniard but this is where it ends for him. Not only will this match have taken it’s physical toll on him, but Roger is in no mood for making donations at the moment. Not on the tennis court anyway. I think this should be another straight set win for Roger. In the next bracket of the draw Baghdatis is playing against Hewitt. The winner of that match should be a better test for Roger. Baghdatis staged an epic comeback today against David Ferrer, winning from two sets and a break down. It was one of the best matches of the tournament thus far. Baghdatis actually started to cramp in the final game of the match and he couldn’t serve properly.

This win will also give Baghdatis confidence and I’m picking him to beat Hewitt, who won in straight sets over Donald Young today. He already beat Hewitt in the tournament in Sydney before the Oz Open. It should be a very interesting third round match nonetheless. The crowd will get pretty vocal as well, with both players having a lot of support in Australia. The other favorites, Davydenko and Djokovic, also had relatively easy wins. Davydenko won in straight sets and Djokovic in four. Then Tsonga looked impressive in a straight set win over Dent. I like what Tsonga is looking like, and it looks like we are going to have a Djokovic/Tsonga quarter final. Tsonga is a dark horse and I won’t be surprised if he faces Roger in the semi-finals.

Prince William and King Federer

He faces Tommy Haas next though, who beat Janko Tipsarevic in five sets. Haas is a dangerous player and that should be another good match between him and Tsonga. Verdasco is also still looking good and I’m very much looking forward to a probable fourth round match between him and Davydenko. Looking at tomorrow’s action, the match that promises a lot is the match between Isner and Monfils. Also Cilic vs Wawrinka and Karlovic vs Ljubicic could be interesting. I expect both Rafa and Delpo to advance to the next round without too many problems. It will be good to watch their matches nonetheless. Finally, Prince William, the future king of England, came to watch Roger’s match today.

Apparently Prince William is an avid tennis fan, but word has it that the real reason for his visit to the Australian Open was to ask King Federer what it takes to a true king (don’t tell them that I told you).

Presser: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2010-01-21/201001211264071558656.html