Ljubicic Makes My Day, Makes Up for Federer Loss with Win Over Nadal

I was very happy today to see Ljubicic make the final at Indian Wells, beating Nadal of all people 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(1). Big upset. Ljubicic is ranked 26 and he is 31 years old, while Rafa is ranked 3 and 23 years old. Ljubicic also beat Djokovic in the fourth round. To me it’s always good to see an older player doing so well, especially Ljubicic who is such a nice guy. To beat two top four players in the space of three matches is Federer-like. To be honest I thought Rafa would win this match. Rafa has been looking really good in this tournament in his matches against Isner and Berdych, and I thought he has a very good shot at defending his title. I thought he would at least beat Ljubicic, but it has to be said that Ljubicic played really well. At least from the sixth game of the second set onwards. In this game he was down 0-40 on his serve before holding.

Until that point it looked like it would be a routine victory for Nadal. Ljubicic said after the match that the sixth game of the second set was the key to the match, and that he played the best tennis of his career. I liked the way Ljubicic was looking to play attacking tennis against Rafa, which many have shown of late is the way to beat him. This is now the second time that Nadal has had match points and lost the match after the same thing happened to him against Davydenko in Doha earlier this year, whereas before it has never happened to him. Things only seem to be getting worse for Rafa. He is now on a 13 match losing streak against the top 9, and this loss to a 31 year old veteran of the tour is not going to help him. He will also fall back to number 4 in the world after this loss again. As the match went on Nadal started making more unforced errors and in the key moments it was clear that he lacked confidence.

This is so unlike Rafa, who used to be so decisive in the key moments. In the third set tie break, when you would expect him to really step it up, he basically collapsed. The clay court season cannot come fast enough for him now. Still, I feel like my prediction about Rafa is becoming more true every day. I said a long time ago that he will burn out, and I think this could well be the case now. He just seemed to have lost his edge. Players who play attacking tennis routinely beat him these days. Also Rafa lacks the confidence in the key moments of matches that made him such a great player. Ljubicic now faces local favorite Roddick in the final, who beat Soderling 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Roddick was up a set and a break before Soderling came back to win the second set. In the third set Roddick was too strong with the crowd behind him.

As is the case with Ljubicic, this is Roddick’s first final at Indian Wells. One thing about Roddick is that he is a good match player. He plays intelligently and keep his opponent under pressure. This could be a tough match up for Ljubicic, especially with the crowd behind Roddick. Roddick has a big serve and won’t give Ljubicic the same rhythm on the return as his previous opponents. Still I hope Ljubicic can pull this win off and win his first Master Series title. He has been in three other Masters Series so I hope he can become fourth time lucky. It would be especially sweet considering his age. It has not been a good week for the top 4 in the world, with Murray losing to Soderling in the quarterfinals in straight sets as well. Not that I mind. Seeing guys like Soderling, Ljubicic and Roddick in the latter stages of the tournament is fresh and good for the game in my opinion.