You were probably waiting for a while for my post, but I needed some time to process this loss. I wasn’t crushed after this loss or anything, but you do feel disappointed and you don’t feel like writing about it immediately. I won’t go into too much detail about the match itself, because we have seen it all before. You all know how positive I was before the match. I tried my best to believe that this time Roger could overcome his nemesis, but it wasn’t to be. I really did have a good feeling about the match, but I have realized once and for all that Nadal is just Roger’s nemesis. After the Masters Cup I said he was not Roger’s nemesis. Yes, I am changing my mind. Nemesis is a strong word though. Lets just call it bad match up, because that is exactly what it is. It is a bad match up for Roger for two reasons.
The first is the fact that Nadal can expose his less than perfect backhand and the second is that Nadal can expose his less than perfect mental fortitude. What I just said is very important. It holds the whole key to the Fedal rivalry. Roger is as perfect a tennis player as there ever was. He doesn’t have weaknesses. Rather, he has less than perfect qualities, and he has only two of them. As I said, those are his one-handed backhand and his mental fortitude. These are not by any means weaknesses. It is still one of the best one-handed backhands ever and one of the best mental fortitude’s ever. It is just that Nadal can expose their less than perfectness. Because Nadal is left-handed, hits with massive spin on his forehand side, and because he is mentally extremely tough, he can make those less than perfect qualities appear like weaknesses.
It is pretty much that simple. That is why I say it is all about match up. It is as if Nadal was born to be a thorn in Roger’s side. There simply cannot be a more awkward opponent for Roger to play. Nadal is truly the anti-Federer. I have realized that once and for all and it will never change. As far as I’m concerned this was Roger’s last chance to show that Nadal does not own him, but he failed convincingly. Even though it was a match of high quality and intensity, Roger had that familiar forlorn look about him for most of the match. It actually started after the first set. It is that look of almost complete resignation. It is as if he already lost and it is just a question of time before it is all over. There was really nothing new here, but for the sake of completeness I will go through the match with you.
As is the case with most Fedal slam matches, Roger started out on fire. He quickly jumped to a 3-0 lead. In the beginning stages it looked like he had Nadal on a string. He was looking quite relaxed running Nadal from side to side on the base line. It was almost a type of arrogance. This is exactly the kind of attitude Roger must have against Nadal, so I became excited. To beat Nadal Roger must not go for the winner too quickly. He must get a certain satisfaction of having Nadal on a string behind the base line. Ending the point with a winner must almost be like a bonus. The thing is you know Nadal is gonna get back a million balls, but that must not intimidate you. But it does intimidate Roger. He starts to panic and then he goes for too much and he misses. Roger is just too nice a guy. It is as if he starts feeling sorry for Nadal.
Instead he must keep Nadal running until he runs himself into the ground. He must get a sadistic satisfaction from seeing Nadal running around like a headless chicken behind the baseline. But that is just not Roger Federer. He is too good a guy, and that is part of why we love him. We can’t have it both ways. Roger is an artist, not a killer. If he was a cold killer like Nadal he would not be Roger Federer. I think it was at 4-2 where Roger then played a strange game with three unforced errors and a bad volley to get broken. The first set then went into a tie break. It was obvious to me that Roger had to win it to have a chance, so it was nervy stuff. Luckily Roger got the break early on and somehow managed to hold on to win the first set. Roger then even broke in the first game of the second set. It was a a crucial time to break that could have really had Nadal in trouble.
But a break is not a break until consolidated. Almost like clockwork he dropped serve in the next game. Going a set and a break up against Nadal in a slam was just too good to be true. I think it was at this point where I started noticing that resigned look from Roger. Nadal could obviously sense that Roger couldn’t put him away, and he capitalized by breaking in the sixth game. He made two unreal passing shots to do so. He then held serve for 5-2. At this point the fireworks show for Australia Day started and there was a break in play. I thought this was a good time for Roger to regroup, but to the contrary he surrendered serve tamely when play resumed to lose the second set. Certainly not encouraging, but at least it was now on even terms. If Roger could win the third set he would still have a very good chance to win the match.
As the third set wore on it started to remind me of the 2009 final. This was Roger’s big chance to exorcise that demon. He proceeded to get the crucial break in the seventh game to take a 4-3 lead. But again like clockwork he dropped serve in the very next game. A break is not a break until you consolidate. Roger was once again doing the exact same thing he did in the 2009 final. He was letting Nadal off the hook. But at least he held on until the tie break. In the tie break Nadal quickly jumped to a 6-1 lead. Roger then saved four set points to make it 6-5. It was just to tease us though, because the next point which was the one that really mattered, he lost. Right then I knew it was all over. There was no need to watch any further. Deep down I knew it was over after the second set, having seen that resigned look from Roger.
But yet I stood by Roger throughout that third set. I wanted to believe that this time things could be different, but I was deluding myself. When he lost the third set I knew for a fact there was no way back for Roger. To Roger’s credit he still fought in the fourth set but it was all in vain. Nadal was going to serve for the match at 5-4. Roger was still fighting and he produced a break back point. Then came the most ridiculous point of the match where a ball from Nadal tipped the net. Roger had a comfortable forehand which he hit down the line. Against most players it would have been a winner, but Nadal got to it and hit a lob that landed squarely on the baseline. Absolutely unreal. Roger was so shocked by it that he steered the smash from the baseline wide. He was clearly psyched out that Nadal could make a shot like that.
There was a look of disbelief on his face. The point summed up the match. Nadal’s superhuman defense had triumphed over Roger’s offense, as it has done on countless other occasions. Nadal is just physically and mentally too strong for Roger. He breaks Roger down physically and mentally until there is nothing left of him. I mean Nadal is like a piece of iron. It is just unreal to watch how he reaches absolutely everything and never tires. It leaves you lost for words. But you just have to accept it. Of course the first thing that comes to mind is the doping issue, but to me that has become a weak reaction. Since there is no proof that Nadal is doping it makes one look like a sore loser by bringing that up every time he beats Roger. It makes it look like Roger is too good to ever lose. But hard as it is to believe, Roger can lose too.
Rather than using the excuse of doping, I want to look if there is anything that Roger could have done differently. The pivotal games in the match was the second game of the second set and the eighth game of the third set. These were the games where Roger should have consolidated and stamped his authority on the match. So in a sense he is to blame. But looked at from a different angle Roger is who he is. He will never become a killer like Nadal. I have come to accept this now. Therefor this match was not very hard for me to get over. I have once and for all accepted that Nadal is just too tough a match up for Roger and I am at peace with that. Other than the fact that this is just reality, there are two things that helps me accept this fact. One is that Djokovic now owns Nadal for the same reason that Nadal owns Roger, which is match up.
Djokovic is just a very tough match up for Nadal as well and he has been owned thoroughly now. The fact that Djokovic beat Murray today means that he will face Nadal in the final and have the opportunity to own him even worse than Nadal owns Roger. If Djokovic beats Nadal he would have beaten him in three straight slams finals, something Nadal never did to Roger, not to mention the other four consecutive finals in which Djokovic beat Nadal. The other reason that helps me be at peace is the fact that Roger is still the GOAT. The Australian Open website made a poll where people could vote for the GOAT, and Roger won it by a landslide. When I voted Roger had over 70% of the votes, while Nadal was a distant second with something like 12% of the votes. The voting is closed now but you can view the article here.
Roger is still by far the GOAT in most people’s eyes, which is nice to see. It is not impossible that Nadal may catch him in major titles. There is just no way I would count Nadal out from achieving anything, but the Djokovic factor is there. You also can’t put it beyond Nadal to turn the ownership of Djokovic over him around, but if Djokovic defeats Nadal on Sunday it will once again be a big blow to Nadal. It is important for Roger that Djokovic wins, because if Nadal wins he will add another hard court slam to his clay heavy slam resume, he would be on 11 slams, and he would have gone a long way towards getting the Djokovic monkey off his back. The Australian Open surface probably suits Djokovic’s game better than any other slam, so he has to make this count. Djokovic had a marathon five set match against Murray in the semis, but I do believe he will beat Nadal again come Sunday.
I hope you can all be at peace with this loss from Roger as I am and I hope this post helped you. I will be back tomorrow with a look at the Djokoray semi as well as a preview of the final.
Before I proceed with my post, let me just say I have really enjoyed reading your comments and taking part in the discussion. My blog wouldn’t be the same without it so thank you for taking part. I have also enjoyed watching this Australian Open a lot as well as writing about it. The remaining quarter finals were concluded today and as was pretty much expected, it will be the top four competing for a final spot again. These four guys are just so far ahead of the rest, and they must be the strongest top four in the history of the sport. I like to see them in the semis, but the Federer/Djokovic and Nadal/Murray match ups started to get a bit redundant. It is a fresh change to have a Fedal and Djokoray semi. I hope to see that happen more often in the future. Before I get to the semi-final previews, let me just go over the remaining quarter final matches that were concluded today.
The Murray/Nishikori match was very one-sided, with Murray winning 6-3, 6-3, 6-1. Not much to say here aside from the fact that Murray is looking dangerous. His draw has been a bit of a joke but he hasn’t been troubled in the least and must still be very fresh. Nishikori on the other hand must have been pretty spent after a bunch of tough matches. Will the fact that Murray has not been tested so far, come back to haunt him? I don’t think so. Murray has been looking relaxed since hooking up with Lendl. We may just see a different Murray in his semi against Djokovic. I don’t expect Murray to all of a sudden beat Djokovic after he got destroyed in last year’s final, but this could be a much closer match. I am going to predict that Djokovic will win this one in four. In the last quarter final Djokovic played against Ferrer which Djokovic won 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-1.
It was physically a grueling match even though it just lasted three sets. Ferrer is fit as a dog and never gives up, but in the end Djokovic’s quality was just too much. He played some clutch tennis at crucial stages which made the difference. Ferrer doesn’t have the weapons to hurt Djokovic either. To beat Djokovic just retrieving everything is not enough. You have to be able to hurt him on the offense as well. Roger is basically the only guy that can do this. Although Murray has better offense than Ferrer, I still don’t think it’s good enough to upset Djokovic. Neither his serve nor his forehand is good enough. He does however have a great backhand, he moves very well, and he has good volleys and variation. That’s why I can see him taking a set. But in the end I think Djokovic is just too solid overall. His backhand has always been amazing, but now his serve and forehand has become weapons as well.
Now let me get to the main dish, the much expected Fedal semi. Whenever these two meet in a slam it is a special occasion, and this will be no exception. This will be their 10th meeting in a slam, with Nadal leading the head-to-head 7-2. This is of course not a great record for Roger, but we also know that five of those meeting were on clay. Those five meetings don’t matter much to me as Nadal was expected to win them all. On grass Roger leads 2-1, which is a good record. The one I don’t like is the 1-0 record Nadal has on hard court over Roger. Roger is the best hard court player in history and that loss to Nadal in the 2009 Australian Open final is the one that really hurt. That is the one that has to be reversed here.If Roger beats Nadal he will have a positive head-to-head over Nadal in slams off clay. That is something I will be happy with.
But there is another interesting statistic. Nadal leads Roger 4-1 on outdoor hard, and the only match that Roger won he was down two sets and a break. There is no doubt that at first glance the stats doesn’t look very good for Roger, and that he is up against it here. But that would fail to take into account that Roger has had some telling wins in this rivalry as well. I know many Fedfans will basically assume that Roger is doomed here against his so-called nemesis. This is an attitude that I simply cannot accept. I read in some forums yesterday and I was disgusted at some of the Fedfan attitudes. I have to wonder why these people even call themselves Fedfans. If it is always a forgone conclusion that Roger will lose to Nadal, then why be his fan? I feel like that is a cowardly way to look at it and not worthy of a true Fedfan.
Personally I relish this challenge and I have a great feeling about it. Like I said, Roger has had some key wins in this rivalry, like for instance at the Masters Cup last year. If that win doesn’t give Fedfans hope then I don’t know what will. I mean it was utter destruction. I don’t care about the surface either. If you beat someone that badly it gives you confidence. I feel like Roger is overdue here, and the Masters Cup was a preview of what’s to come. This is Roger Federer the GOAT we are talking about here. It would be a sin to assume that he is going to lose. Especially given his recent form. I mean you couldn’t hope for better form going into this match. Not only did he crush Nadal 6-3, 6-0 at the Masters Cup, but he is on a 24-match winning streak and is playing some incredible tennis in his last three rounds.
But more important than all these stats is my gut feeling. I can’t explain it, but I just have a very good feeling about this match. For one thing I am very excited. You know, I can start naming all the reasons why Roger will once again lose to Nadal, but what’s the point? I would rather name all the reasons why he can win this. Let me first get back to Roger’s match against Del Potro. I already said the game at 5-3 in the second set was key. I think in the last few years Roger has all too often allowed opponents back into the match after having them in trouble. After losing to Djokovic for a second consecutive year in the US Open semis after being two match points up, it was time for introspection. I mean seriously, that is so unlikely to happen that you have to wonder if the tennis gods are trying to tell you something.
Apparently Roger listened to the tennis gods because he took time off thereafter to ask some questions. Ever since then he has not lost a match. I think that may have something to so with the fact that he took a good look at himself. A good example is the Del Potro match. I think in the past he would have lost serve at 5-3 and allowed Del Potro back in the match. You can say the fact that he even got nervous at that point is a sign of mental weakness, but I don’t look at it that way. I see it as the ‘new’ Roger. In that final he lost to Nadal in 2009 he let Nadal back into the match in the third set, and it cost him dearly. Ever since then he kept doing the same thing. I think things have come full circle for Roger now and it is time to put that demon to bed. If he succeeds in doing so we may just see a whole new era of Federer domination.
I know that sounds very optimistic, but I have never believed that Roger’s game has deserted him. Having watched him since the US Open last year I feel his game is as good as ever. The only problem before that was in the mental department. I believe that loss in the 2009 Australian Open final scarred Roger mentally and he wasn’t the same afterwards. The game is no doubt still there, and if he can exorcise that mental demon against Nadal tomorrow, he may just get back to his dominant best. As far as the tactics go we have discussed this many a time. The serve will be key as always. Roger has been serving very well since the indoor season and I expect the same tomorrow. Then on the return he has to take some chances and really try to hurt Nadal. The biggest challenge against Nadal is his retrieving and counter punching abilities.
We saw that against Berdych again. Berdych is one of the biggest hitters on tour, if not the biggest, and yet he found it extremely hard to penetrate the Nadal defense. I mean it is just unreal the balls he gets to and the accuracy with which he returns them. And this is slowish hard courts which makes it even harder to hit a winner against him. This is a reality that can’t be escaped, but if Roger stays patient and doesn’t lose his nerve, his offense is good enough to finish the point. In the past it is just that extra ball which Nadal returns that really gave Roger a headache. If you look at the 2009 final Roger did have chances to put Nadal away in the third set, but he became tentative. There is no doubt in my mind he would have won that match had he not doubted himself. So all he needs to do this time is to push home the advantage.
It’s easier said than done, but since I believe we are seeing a new Roger since the US Open, I believe he will get the job done here. I’m not going to go into anymore tactics here, because as we saw in the 2009 final, Roger does have the game to beat Nadal on this surface. It is more a mental game than anything else. Roger will no doubt get opportunities to take the initiative in this match and then he has to pounce. There will be no place for timidity this time. He will simply have to go out there and take the initiative with both hands. If we know one thing it is that Nadal won’t lose this match, so Roger needs to go out there and win it. I am feeling very positive. I think JesusFed will show up and do what he should have done three years ago.
Roger in 3
Ps: I have created a thread in the forum where you can chat during the Fedal match. I feel there is a need for it because some of you often come to leave comments during or right after matches. You can find the thread here.
Update: I just saw this tweet on twitter by @RF_link and I thought I’d share it with you:
Rod Laver:”I feel in my gut, I feel that Roger will be in the final “
I saw this after I made my post and it kind of surprised me, because I said pretty much the exact same thing in my post.
Not quite what you expected was it? This whole match was decided in the 9th game of the second set. It reminded me of the 2009 US Open. Roger started out in Goderer mode. The first three games was the very best of Roger. If he kept that up we could have seen another 6-3, 6-0, 6-0 win. It was that good. But Roger soon got broken back as his level dropped only by the slightest margin. That is how small the margins in these kind of matches are. At 5-4 Roger brought up two set points with a scorching forehand winner down the line. Del Potro then served a double to hand Roger the first set. As was the case at the 2009 US Open, Roger went a break up in the second set as well. He did so with a genius backhand half volley winner down the line. Now it appeared that Roger was in control of the match.
But as we saw at the US Open, it was far from over. At 5-3 Roger served for the second set and had to face down four break points. It was everything but a convincing service game. He appeared extremely shaky. To be honest I thought he was going to lose serve. It was one of those moments that we have seen so often of late where Roger was about to let his opponent back in the match after being in control, and I was furious. But on the fourth break point there was a long nervous rally and Del Potro eventually hit the ball long, after which Roger let out a huge roar of ‘ALLEZ!’. He knew how important that moment was and so did I. Del Potro was not gonna come back from two sets to love down, and immediately my mind went back to the 2009 US Open. Had Roger held serve when he served for the second set there it would probably have been a straight set win too.
Del Potro did hit two amazing passes on that occasion after the score was 30-30, so you could say that was just too good. I guess Roger was thinking back to that occasion when he was serving for the second set this time, because he seemed very shaky. If he lost serve there we may have seen another five set marathon which Roger could have lost. But the fact that he held serve effectively broke Del Potro’s resolve. In the third set he broke Del Potro two more times. It was another clean performance with 57% first serves, 44% return points won, 38 winners against 22 unforced errors, and 5/8 break point conversions. The average first serve speed was back down to 180 km/h however. I think Del Potro was over hyped going into this match. After he destroyed Kohlschreiber in the last round I fell for the hype myself.
But Del Potro is clearly not yet in the form he was at the 2009 US Open. I won’t say Del Potro is overrated because I do believe he can play like that again if his body allows him to. But I don’t think Del Potro is top three level either. He hasn’t even won a Masters Series title. Roger said in his presser that Del Potro is in that group just behind the top four. I tend to agree with that. Del Potro doesn’t win enough tournaments to be top four. He is just not consistent enough, whether it be his injuries or not. I had a lot of expectation for Del Potro after he won the US Open but I have lowered those somewhat. He is just very injury prone and he needs to stay fit for a long time to really compete for slams again. To get back to yesterday to the match between Djokovic and Hewitt, it was much closer than I expected.
I predicted Hewitt would not win more than seven games, and at 6-1, 6-3, 3-0 it looked like my prediction was right on track. But then Djokovic’s seemed to get a bit bored while Hewitt showed some great fight. Hewitt took the third set 6-4 to the delight of the Aussie crowd, but Djokovic inevitably wrapped up the match in the 4th set. It was nice to see Hewitt play that well after all the injury problems he had. You have to respect the fight he has in him. Does this mean that Djokovic is vulnerable? No. Djokovic have lost sets during slams last year as well and went on to win it. If anything I think this match will be good for him after all the easy wins he had. I don’t expect any lapse in concentration against Ferrer. I am sure Djokovic wants to prove a point after losing 6-3, 6-1 to Ferrer at the Masters Cup.
I expect a straight sets win. But let me get back to the other quarter final match that was played today between Nadal and Berdych. Nadal ended up scraping through 6-7(5), 7-6(6), 6-4, 6-3 in more than four hours. It is funny how it worked out. I expected this match to be a straight forward one and the Del Fed match to be the close one, but it turned out to be the opposite. Berdych was booed when he stepped on the court but that didn’t matter. He played as well as I’ve seen him play. I mean in full flight he is a destructive force. After winning the first set he had set point in the second set, but missed a relatively easy volley. That was to be expected. Nadal was always going to be mentally too strong for Berdych, no matter how well he was playing. A clutch player would have made that volley, but Berdych is not clutch.
Compared to Nadal very few players are clutch anyway. After Nadal won that point and the second set, the result was inevitable. In the remaining quarter final match I think Murray will beat Nishikori. I think we will have the top four in the semis again, which would be a big treat. But for a change we will have a Fedal and Djokoray semi. The Djokoray semi is not certain yet but the Fedal semi is. No doubt there is huge expectations for this match but I am not gonna give my thoughts here. I will do a full preview tomorrow once the remaining quarter finals are concluded. Then I will preview both semis, but with most of the focus on the Fedal semi. Lets just enjoy for now that Roger has made an incredible 9th consecutive Australian Open semi and won his 1000th match. Don’t forget that Roger is on a 23-match winning streak too!
Ps. I forgot to mention that Nadal received coaching from uncle Toni again. I didn’t see it myself but @samsbiceps on twitter told me that Toni signaled Nadal to stand closer to the baseline when returning serve after the first set. I just thought I’d run that by you. Even after getting warned for it at Wimbledon and getting very upset over it, Nadal has not stopped his rule breaking.
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